In fairness, there is far more to be worried about in Europe than in the US, for as bad as our energy policies are, their's are worse and that will continue to impact their economy for a very long time
Yes, and there is a constant concern about 'fragmentation' - meaning Italian bond spreads widen and cause funding difficulties for the 3rd largest economy in the bloc. You can get away with fighting inflation only up to the point where monetary union is threatened.
That's what it's there for. And I expect it will work, but I'm sure they are not keen to test it, so better all agree that inflation is beaten and rates don't need to go higher.
That isn't evident in the published numbers. The PEPP has few restrictions on reinvestment allocation but so far the PEPP adheres fairly closely to Capital Key.
I've just been told the ECB skewed reinvestment to Italy a year ago, at the expense of Germany. That no longer appears to be happening. In fact, there is very good retail and domestic demand for Italian bonds - something I was expecting because historically locals loved buying BTPs at around 5% (and selling foreign equities).
In fairness, there is far more to be worried about in Europe than in the US, for as bad as our energy policies are, their's are worse and that will continue to impact their economy for a very long time
Yes, and there is a constant concern about 'fragmentation' - meaning Italian bond spreads widen and cause funding difficulties for the 3rd largest economy in the bloc. You can get away with fighting inflation only up to the point where monetary union is threatened.
but that's why they have the TPI. won't that stop fragmentation? :)
That's what it's there for. And I expect it will work, but I'm sure they are not keen to test it, so better all agree that inflation is beaten and rates don't need to go higher.
I feel like they have already been using it, replacing maturing bunds with new BTPs
That isn't evident in the published numbers. The PEPP has few restrictions on reinvestment allocation but so far the PEPP adheres fairly closely to Capital Key.
I've just been told the ECB skewed reinvestment to Italy a year ago, at the expense of Germany. That no longer appears to be happening. In fact, there is very good retail and domestic demand for Italian bonds - something I was expecting because historically locals loved buying BTPs at around 5% (and selling foreign equities).