Beige Book
No strong signal for change, concern remains over growth outlook and tariffs
Our textual analysis suggests the latest Beige Book released on 4th June slightly moderated concerns about the US economy expressed in the previous (April) Beige Book. However, the overall assessment remains negative, reflecting some concern about stagflation in the US economy as the assessment of inflation remained largely unchanged. Concern about the impact of tariff policy remains, unsurprisingly, very high. Overall, the Beige Book suggests the FOMC will follow a waiting brief at the forthcoming meeting.
Our sentiment indicator continues to suggest subpar growth. The April report had reflected a sharp decline in economic prospects. The latest report continues in the red but at a less pronounced negative level. The surprise negative assessment of the April report has not reversed.
Some of the bounceback can be attributed to the timing of the last report. The reference period for the April report included the market mayhem that followed ‘Liberation Day’. The subsequent revisions to tariff policy and the bounceback in risk assets may have calmed some of the more alarmed assessments of the April Beige Book.
Paid subscribers get the more detailed assessment that follows:
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to ExorbitantPrivilege to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.